Gold Archives - Page 7 of 8 - Elliott Wave Forecast

GDXJ (Gold Miners Junior) Correction Maybe Completed

October 21, 2020 By EWFHendra

Gold and related Index such as Gold Miners Junior (GDXJ) maybe ready to make the next move higher. The next important catalyst in the market is the US election and the second Coronavirus relief package. Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continue to have discussion about the size and language of the stimulus bill. As the election is getting closer however, there’s skepticism whether Congress can approve the package before the election. Furthermore, Republican senators have indicated they won’t approve the bill even if the White House and Democrat can agree on the bill.

It’s however certain that the second stimulus package will come. The question is not whether it will come. Instead, the question is when will it come and how big. There is a belief among market participants that if Joe Biden can win the White House and Democrats can take over the Senate, Democrat can introduce a much larger stimulus package. As of now, the White House proposed $1.8 trillion package while Democrat proposed $2.2 trillion.

When the second stimulus package comes, it’s likely to create further support for the stock market. In addition, US Dollar should resume lower as the monetary and fiscal stimulus continue to debase the currency. One beneficiary for currency debasement is Gold and by extension Gold Miners. We wrote an article about Gold Miners Junior ($GDXJ) back in July 21 calling for further upside as it broke a 7 year basing pattern. Here’s the link to the article: Gold Miners Junior (GDXJ) breaks 7 year base

Since then, it has retraced the breakout base as chart below shows:

GDXJ (Gold Miners Junior) Monthly Elliott Wave Chart

After the initial breakout above $52.5 in July, the Index has retraced the resistance-turned-support at the same level. There’s a possibility that the Index can resume higher again now. US election and further prospect of stimulus may become the catalyst for the move higher.

GDXJ (Gold Miners Junior) Daily Elliott Wave Chart

Gold Miners Junior ($GDXJ) Daily chart above shows it did a double three (W)-(X)-(Y) correction in the past 3 months to end wave ((2)). It has since turned higher but still needs to break above wave ((1)) at $65.95 to avoid a double correction. The Index now has a chance to resume higher and the next leg higher will get confirmation once it breaks above $65.95.

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Elliott Wave View: Gold Correction Lower Taking Place

October 14, 2020 By Hassan Sheikh

Elliott wave view in Gold ticker symbol: $XAUUSD suggests that the correction lower approximately towards $1801- $1669 area or a deep test of the 24 September 2020 low should be taking place. Right now, the bounce from the 9/24/2020 low has ended wave 2 in Gold. The internals of that bounce unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at $1917.10 high. Down from there, wave ((b)) pullback unfolded as a lesser degree flat structure where wave (a) ended at $1886.20 low.

Wave (b) bounce ended at $1921.14 high and wave (c) completed at $1872.75 low thus completed wave ((b)) pullback. Up from there, the metal started wave ((c)) in an impulse sequence where wave (i) ended at $1898 high. Wave (ii) ended at $1878.70 low, wave (iii) ended at $1929.26 high, wave (iv) ended at $1918.40, and wave (v) ended at $1933.25 high, thus completed wave 2 correction. Below from there, the metal is showing 5 waves impulse sequence decline favoring a bounce to fail for another leg of weakness at least. Near-term, as far as the bounces fail below $1933.25 high expect metal to extend lower.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Gold Elliott Wave Video

AUG (Gold/Silver Ratio) Showing A Five Waves From 03.18.2020

September 29, 2020 By EWF Eric

AUG( Gold/Silver Ratio), Showing A Five Waves From 03.18.2020.

The Ratio between Gold/Silver ( AUG) is a very good indicator of where the market is heading and especially the $USDX trade. The Ratio reached the extreme blue box area early this year when it trades into the 126.23 peaks. We at Elliottwave-forecast always relate the Market and understand how each instrument affects the other. When the Ratio reached the blue box area because we knew that the market was closed for a turn against the $USDX. And it will then affect the value of Silver in a quite simple equation i.e higher Silver means lower $USDX. Similarly lower Silver means higher $USDX. We will explain the forecast below.

Gold To Silver Ratio ( AUG) Monthly Chart

The following chart represented the advance in the Ratio since the old-time lows, and show how the Blue Box area was reached. Meaning a change in dynamics and how we see the relationship between Gold and Silver. The Ratio trading higher means that Gold holds the value more than Silver. But most important means the $USDX is supported. We understand many will not be able to see the relationship between Gold trading higher and $USDX trading either sideways to higher or sideways to lower. The Ratio is like commodities crosses it is a balance between three instruments and always one needs to be sideways.

In this case, Gold, Silver, and USDX, we believe Gold will lag Silver into the news cycle and the $USDX will be the one losing ground. While Gold was leading Silver since 2016. It has been trading higher while Silver trade sideways and even took 2016 low. While $USDX makes a new high in the same period. The blue box reaching means the dynamics change and consequently knowing that will allow traders to get the best out of the Market. Early this year, we presented an article that explains exactly what the Market has been doing.

The article explains that Silver was about to turn higher and the $USDX will turn lower. As right now, we know the Ratio reached the Blue Box and turned lower. We already saw $XAGUSD (Silver) rally and $XAUUSD(Gold) taking the 2011 peak, which was expected. Now, something else has happened, the Ratio is showing a clear five waves decline off the peak at the Blue Box. The idea is explained in the following chart:

Gold To Silver Ratio ( AUG) Daily Chart

The Idea presents the path into three waves bounce and then should see more downside. It will present a unique opportunity for those that understand how the Market works. As we always said, the Market is a series of three instruments, and the five waves lower in the ratio are telling us who will be the winner and who will be losing. The Five waves are telling us where to place our investment and why the $USDX will be the one losing. But also will be telling us that Silver will rally a lot and will be a long term opportunity.

Gold To Silver Ratio Video

Elliott Wave View: Further Downside to End Gold Correction

September 29, 2020 By EWFHendra

Elliott Wave view of Gold (XAUUSD) suggests the decline from September 1 high is unfolding in impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Down from September 1 high, wave ((i)) ended at $1915.8, and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at $1973.59. Down from there, wave (i) ended at $1931.90, wave (ii) ended at $1960.14, wave (iii) ended at $1881.87, wave (iv) ended at $1920.02, and wave (v) ended at $1847.90. This completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Wave ((iv)) bounce is proposed complete at $1887.29 as a Flat where wave (a) ended at $1877.03, wave (b) ended at $1848.45, and wave (c) ended at $1887.29.

Near term, while below $1973.50, the yellow metal has scope for another low in wave ((v)) of 3, then it should bounce in wave 4 to correct cycle from September 1 high before the decline resumes again in wave 5 of (C) of ((4)). As far as pivot at $1973.50 high stays intact, Gold still can see further downside . Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from August 7 high which comes at $1752 – $1802. Buyers should be waiting in this area, if reached, for a larger 3 waves bounce at minimum.

Gold (XAUUSD) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave Video

Generational Buying Opportunity in Gold and Silver?

September 12, 2020 By EWFHendra

On Saturday, September 12, 2020 we at Elliott Wave Forecast hosted a Free Seminar. The topic of the seminar was ” Generational Buying Opportunity in Gold and Silver?”. We analyze and talk about the outlook of Gold, Silver, and Miners.

In the seminar, we explain why the break to all time high in precious metal against US Dollar is likely not a terminal move and much more upside can be expected in years to come. We also explain why Silver has potential of even more upside due to Gold to Silver Ratio pulling back from all-time high.

Gold Monthly Elliott Wave Outlook

The monthly chart of the precious metal above suggests more upside expected to reach at least $2970 – $3428 area in coming years. This target is based on the 100% extension from all-time low. It’s also the most conservative target assuming a zigzag structure from the all-time low. The rally can see a lot more than this target area if it becomes an impulse.

Watch the Free Webinar recording below to check our view on the precious metal sectors in coming years. Check to see why we think we think it’s a great opportunity to be in the precious metal sectors now.

Generational Buying Opportunity in Gold and Silver? 9.12.2020 Video

Learn more about our service with a Free 14 Day Trial and Learn how to trade the market with our trading method. We hope you liked this Webinar

Elliott Wave View: Further Correction in Gold Still Possible

September 4, 2020 By EWF Hardianto

Gold 1 hour chart below shows that the metal has ended the cycle from August 18 high in wave 1 at 1911.20 low. From there, the metal then bounced higher and ended wave 2 at 1994.06 high. The bounce unfolded as flat Elliott Wave Structure. From wave 1 low, wave ((a)) ended at 1962.18 high. Wave ((b)) then ended at 1902.30 low. The metal then extended higher in wave ((c)), which ended at 1994.06 high. This ended wave 2 in larger degree.

Down from wave 2 high, the metal has resumed lower in wave ((i)), which ended at 1921.66 low. The subdivision of wave ((i)) unfolded as 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) ended at 1955.70 low and the bounce in wave (ii) ended at 1967.45 low. Wave (iii) then ended at 1926.80 low and wave (iv) ended at 1945.94 high. The push lower in wave (v) ended at 1921.66 low. Currently, wave ((ii)) is in progress. While below 1994.06 high, expect bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. However, gold needs to break below August 12 low to confirm that next leg lower has started. If that low is broken, then the target to the downside is the 100% extension from August 7 high at 1800 level.